England arrested a five-Test losing run with a 59-14 victory over Japan as the dust began to settle after a challenging autumn campaign.
But with defeats to New Zealand, Australia and South Africa leaving more questions than answers, where does it leave England rugby and Steve Borthwick?
England endemically ordinary?
England are seventh in the global rankings and can have no complaints with their position.
A disappointing 2024, consisting of five wins in 12 Tests, has confirmed them to be a middling rugby nation, capable of knocking over weaker sides but unable to topple the heavyweights with any consistency.
The mediocrity is not confined to 2024, as revealed by a remarkable statistic showing, that in the last two decades, they have won just 27.3 per cent of games against sides who have ended the year ranked inside the top four.
From Andy Robinson and Brian Ashton, Rob Andrew, Martin Johnson and Stuart Lancaster, to Eddie Jones and now Borthwick, English mediocrity since winning the 2003 World Cup is fully entrenched.
Porous blitz defence now a liability
An autumn consisting of three defeats has seen England take a backwards step and nowhere is the decline more visible than in defence.
The aggressive ‘blitz’ system that rattled the All Blacks in July has become a weakness since its mastermind, Felix Jones, resigned during the summer.
Joe El-Abd is now in charge of defence and the change in personnel has led to confusion, with 14 tries and 109 points conceded in the four matches.
Leaking an average of 27.25 points each game is the path to ruin – home or away.
England flounder in final quarter
It was not so much that England failed to turn up against New Zealand, Australia or South Africa, far from it. All three performances featured electric spells of attacking intent, particularly from the outset.
Entertainment is almost guaranteed at Twickenham these days, England and Borthwick deserve some credit for that, but their inability to see out games means victories – the ultimate barometer – are not quite as certain.
England did not score a point after the 60-minute mark against New Zealand. They did not score after the 52nd minute against South Africa. When Maro Itoje’s 78th-minute try looked to have settled matters against Australia, a misjudged defensive set opened the door for Max Jorgensen to snatch a famous victory for the Wallabies.
March’s victory over Ireland in the Six Nations shows England can convert an encouraging performance into victory, but doing so with consistency is the code Borthwick must now crack.
England not a million miles away
Pessimism aside, it is worth contemplating just how different the outlook would be were it not for the width of a post.
If George Ford converts his late penalty or drop goal in the opening fixture against New Zealand, a first victory over the All Blacks at Twickenham since 2012, sealed in the last minute, would undoubtedly have galvanised England.
Suddenly, the last-gasp defeat to Australia looks unlikely, and Borthwick’s side, now two from two, would have bounded into their showdown against world champions South Africa with the confidence and belief that would ultimately desert them through the autumn.
The Autumn Nations Series was a timely reminder that international Test rugby is settled by the finest margins, and what separates the best from the rest is the getting on the right side of decisive moments on a consistent basis.
England have proven they can compete with the best. They are not a million miles away, even though it may feel like it after an autumn of discontent.
Moment of truth for Borthwick
It is against this backdrop that a seismic Six Nations opener against Ireland in Dublin looms menacingly on the horizon.
Borthwick has been tasked by the Rugby Football Union to produce a minimum of four wins in the championship as pressure builds on the head coach.
To date the RFU has given its full backing to Borthwick, but the next block of fixtures is shaping up to be a pivotal stage in his reign.
Where do England go from here?
Sky Sports’ Eleanor Roper:
“England have ended their autumn campaign on a high. A nine-try victory over Japan had their old boss, Eddie Jones, praising their direction of travel. But while it made for an entertaining afternoon at Allianz Stadium, fans are still left with questions about where this England side go from here.
“Defeats by New Zealand, Australia and South Africa have been disappointing for all concerned but there is no doubt that this England team is exciting to watch. Fans used to complain about losing whilst playing a boring brand of rugby, but that’s not the case any more.
“Marcus Smith started at fly-half for all four of England’s autumn Tests. When it looked like he might have been substituted, boos rang around Twickenham. Fans love to watch him and it’s easy to see why. He’s instrumental to England’s attack and, with nearly 40 caps to his name, even his old boss Eddie Jones was telling journalists post-match how much his game has evolved.
“Where England seem to be struggling is with their defence. The loss of Felix Jones, who helped South Africa become back-to-back world champions, was a big loss for England. He was replaced a month later by Joe El-Abd, who has overseen the defence this autumn, but hasn’t been in the job very long.
“With some young and exciting players, if you pay to watch England you’ll likely be in for a fun afternoon. If you want to see a win though, that is far from guaranteed. If England are to climb the world rankings and improve on their five wins from 12 Tests in 2024, they must learn to close. With all eyes on the 2025 Six Nations, can Borthwick transform England’s fortunes?”
Watch every game of the 2025 British and Irish Lions tour of Australia, including all three Test matches against the Wallabies, exclusively live on Sky Sports.
