Our senior form analyst, Jamie Lynch shines a light on the final flat contest of 2024 on Town Moor on Saturday – the November Handicap, live on Sky Sports Racing.
We’ll cover the big field by compartmentalising the runners, from which a shortlist will organically emerge. And, of course, I’ll nail my colours to a particular mast in the verdict, but the beauty is in the breakdown, so let’s get cracking with those categories…
THE THREE-YEAR-OLDS
Only two 3-y-os have won the November Handicap in the last 15 years, though the trio of that age this time are uncommonly good on profile or progress. VALVE leaps off the page, light on runs but strong on form and from the stable of the season, yet to add to his 2-y-o win but beaten in races won by Notable Speech (now rated 122), Military Academy (will be at least 110 when reassessed for Monday) and Bolster (112). The only downside is that Valvano’s immaturity occasionally manifests as keenness, which he won’t get away with over this longer trip on testing ground.
On the other hand, the stiffer the test the better for the relentless MINSTREL KNIGHT but he’s gone up a total of 13lb for bossing small fields over 1¾m in the mud the last twice, and it’s worth remembering that at York he was more than twice the price of MASTER BUILDERwith good reason, but the track and the tempo made it an unfair fight. I’d be surprised if Master Builder didn’t get his revenge under these circumstances, focusing on his prior progress, resting on some of the strongest 3-y-o form-lines.
THE ELDER RISERS
One of the stars of the season on the sly, THREE DONS was a maiden through his first 30 races before the metamorphosis began in May, and here he is in the November Handicap, 35lb higher and seven wins later, six of them under Molly Gunn, though it’s hard to believe he can scale this classier peak from the foot of the weights. Another transformer, MILLER SPIRITmade it handicap win number five for the year at Newbury in the style of one who hasn’t hit his ceiling yet, he and FLASH BARDOT some eight lengths clear at the end after both had tanked through the race, the latter let off lightly with just a 3lb rise compared to Miller Spirit’s 7lb.
INSANITY looks like he was made for this race, and maybe Alan King thinks so, too, given he’s freshened him up for it following a bump in the road at York when probably turned out to quickly in hindsight. The only horse to have beaten him in three prior runs this season was Mount Atlas who nearly won the Old Rowley Cup last month, and Insanity has to be towards the top of any shortlist, more so with Rossa Ryan up.
Ryan was on board LORD MELBOURNE last time when the trip was too short, and he’s likely still mid-makeover for Beckett who’s had him for only a handful of races, successful twice for amateurs, but now the excellent Jack Doughty is effectively reorienting his mark to just 85, handy indeed. STRESSFREE finished in front of Lord Melbourne at Leicester and in front of Valvano at York before his unlucky third at Doncaster on Futurity day under Jamie Spencer, the right man for nursing stamina as Stressfree tries 1½m for the first time here.
Sent off favourite for the Autumn Cup at Newbury, WAXING GIBBOUS finished only fifth (behind CHILLINGHAM in second and DISTRICTS in fourth), but maybe she wasn’t over her big effort in the Old Borough Cup (neck second to Epic Poet), given more of a break ahead of this, only her ninth race, and benefiting from the services of the champion apprentice, Sean Dylan Bowen.
THE SLEEPERS
They’re lesser in number and danger than normal for a race like this, those who are handicapped to win if reviving. WISE EAGLE has the back-class to do it but he’s still got top-weight, while ADJUVANT does at least have a claimer to help this time, and it’s worth recalling that he went off only 10-1 for last year’s Ebor. BEAMISH is 8lb lower than at the start of his time with Archie Watson, and he’s shown flashes of his Irish form, but it has been over 2m, and this trip in a race like this may be a shock to the system.
THE MUD LOVERS
Conditions aren’t due to be quite so bad or boggy as sometimes plays out in the November Handicap, but it will still be testing, making a positive difference to MAXI KING for one, as he’s in his element when the mud is flying, while TWO BROTHERS loves it and needs it to level the playing field now that he’s back up to a mark that has been beyond him in the past. The off-roader who may still step it up is AULD SHOW LOON who won by a wide margin on heavy ground at Bath on his debut for the yard, but the handicapper hasn’t missed him, raising him 10lb, and he has done all his winning in single-figure fields.
JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT
This is everything you’d expect of a November Handicap, high on quality and quantity, and the sprinkling of 3-y-os are even hotter than usual, Valvano chief amongst them, but it could be the other Ralph Beckett runner who is the answer, LORD MELBOURNE coming out very near the top if indeed this were the cliched box-ticking exercise. The excellent Jack Doughty claiming 5lb is the clincher in a race of fine margins.
