Football’s use of data has skyrocketed in recent years. It’s used in the recruitment process, to analyse player performance and identify opposition weaknesses, to aid injury prevention and risk, and much more besides. The data revolution is here, and it’s here to stay.
But, Marc Skinner, who has overseen a near-perfect start to Manchester United’s Women’s Super League campaign – winning two from two, with two clean sheets – takes more of an empirical view.
“Numbers are good for review, but I like to analyse the rhythm of a game,” he says from Manchester United’s Carrington base, ahead of facing Tottenham live on Sky Sports on Sunday. “Anyone can read a stat, but there is so much context, and so data gives us a concept but it doesn’t account for human contact. Human behaviour is the biggest driving force.”
Skinner believes crunching the numbers can only be helpful alongside a first-hand account – which caters for the ‘why’. Analysing Manchester United’s expected goals (xG) value for example, without the wider xNarrative is, to him, not much use at all. And it got us thinking.
So, we asked Skinner to wrap the context around some eye-catching numbers in an exclusive feature that looks at Manchester United’s best tactical weapons, and how they can be used to help create a winning formula on a more consistent basis this term.
*data range is from the start of the 2023-24 season until present day unless stated otherwise
Laying traps
Manchester United have scored a league-high nine goals following a high turnover since the start of last season, and as Skinner explains, the devil is in the detail.
An average of 14.6 high turnovers per game actually ranks fourth in the league, but it’s goal-ending high turnovers where United excel against their competition.
“I’m a big believer in not letting an opponent dictate anything in games. My style is not to let anybody take advantage, on or off the field – you have to stamp your authority,” he says.
“It’s about trapping the opponent, identifying the weak point and getting after it. We all know that winning the ball high means you’ve got less work to do to score.
“When I started out at Birmingham City I was all about possession, but you learn and grow, and also the game has changed since then. In modern football, we’re evolving to the point where teams want to go one for one in the press, which I’d love to do but it’s very pressurised.
“We try to suffocate and most of the time it works, but every detail matters: body shape, areas to trap and trigger points all play a vital part.”
Pack mentality
Only Arsenal (9.5), and by a fractional amount, allow fewer passes per defensive action than Man Utd (9.6). PPDA tends to be a good measure of the effectiveness and intensity of a team’s ability to press.
United are set up to get after teams, but balancing risk with reward is crucial.
Committing five players to a frontline press, as illustrated by United’s average positions against West Ham in the graphic below, means the pressure against the ball has to be a precise mechanism.
“This is Manchester United, we have to attack, including when you don’t have the ball. It’s built in our DNA,” Skinner explains. “But teams are getting better at the mid-defensive block, so it’s harder to break down.
“The language we use is a mid-block press, because the word ‘block’ can be passive, and that causes a negative domino effect. You jump late, she jumps late, the space is still there to hurt you.
“So when we press we call it a ‘hunt’, it’s not about simply winning the ball back, you have to win it and be able to see options. When we hunt we do it in packs for that reason.”
This season (albeit a very small data set), Manchester United have won two games and scored four goals while taking the fewest touches of the ball of any side in the league (1,325).
Importance of unpredictability
Skinner’s style calls for both aggression and patience, which sounds conflicting, but the right blend can be used to pick teams off whether you have a majority share of the ball or not. Flexing between direct and more measured build-up holds an obvious advantage.
Only Manchester City have scored more goals (11) following a sequence of 10+ passes than Manchester United (6).
For context, champions Chelsea, whose approach under Emma Hayes was less about fixed philosophy and more about an ability to adapt to any opponent, have scored two such goals.
“Most of my players play inside the team shape,” Skinner says, “because there is greater chance of turning the ball over, but it means when we win the ball, you have to get out of pressure zone because it’s a crowded space – if you don’t there’s no advantage.
“We’re built in a structure but I really like the mix. We don’t call it patterns of play, you can’t pattern human beings, we give options and train players to make good decisions.
“There are usually four or five decisions you could make on a football field in any one moment, and if we can actively do the majority of them, how does an opponent stop that? It keeps teams guessing.
“The biggest compliment any opposition manager can pay me is to say: ‘I just don’t know what you’re going to do.'”
Super Ella Toone
Skinner is unsurprised to learn that only five midfielders/forwards received more passes than Ella Toone’s 700 last season. No player in the league received more through balls.
And only four received more forward passes than Toone’s 340.
The No 7 shifts seamlessly between the left half-space and the central pockets, and is the WSL’s highest-ranking attacking midfielder for goal contributions (10), and second-highest for chances created behind Aston Villa’s Kenza Dali in the period.
“I’d like that number to be 1,400 passes,” says Skinner. “I call her the ‘Angel of the North’, because she’s constantly stood with her arms out saying, ‘give me the ball’. I want us to be able to find the pockets better to unlock Tooney.
“She’s such an important part of this team, but there are factors we can accelerate – when receiving the ball on the half turn, how many times does she take a touch forwards rather than a touch backwards, for example.
“And we can help her to open the pitch up more, too, by changing the way we get the ball to her. Can we get her facing forwards? We can be bolder and braver with Ella because of her quality.”
Growing influence of Clinton
Grace Clinton spent the whole of last season on loan at Tottenham, and will line up against Robert Vilahamn’s side for the first time since returning to Manchester United on Sunday.
She was a huge hit at Spurs, playing her way into the England fold as a result, and on Sunday, has the opportunity to become the first Manchester United player to score in each of her first three WSL appearances.
The 21-year-old also excels at collecting forward passes, ranking marginally behind Toone (332), but it’s her defensive improvement that has caught Skinner’s eye.
“The whole reason we sent Grace on loan was to come back and be a starting player for us,” he says. “We identified her potential at 16 because of the way she sees the game, but because she’s so good at possessing the football, she forgets to defend.
“My first principle is everyone on the pitch has to defend, so she had to learn that part of the game. She’s still growing back into us and yet she’s scored twice already. I want to be patient with her, but she’s going to be so bright for the future of Manchester United.”
Watch Manchester United vs Tottenham in the Women’s Super League on Sunday, live on Sky Sports from 11.30am; kick-off 12.30pm
