Our Senior Form Analyst Jamie Lynch on a red-hot renewal of the Group 1 for two-year-olds on Town Moor on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racing.
A race with a rich history of generating Classic winners and, as such, it often repurposes as an individual trial, yet this renewal tends towards the other extreme as a free-for-all, making it high on intrigue but also class, with three Group-race winners facing off against three unbeaten colts.
In short, this field for the William Hill Futurity Trophy at 2.40 on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racingis exactly what an end-of-season Group 1 for two-year-olds ought to look like. Let’s examine the contenders for the one-mile event at Doncaster.
1. AD (Drawn 6)
Jockey: W Buick | Trainer: C Appleby
Knowing the enemy, Godolphin has picked its battles this year, but ending up with what’s likely to be the top 2yo in Shadow Of Light, and therefore it’s significant that Charlie Appleby is sending into this Futurity fight one who, on the face of it, looks underqualified.
Not seen since mid-summer, both of Anno Domini’s wins were by less than a length, in mere novice company, but they only scratched the surface of his talent, quicker still to gear down than power up, and the horse he swept by in the penultimate furlong at Sandown was the now 105-rated Windlord who was a closing third to Hotazhell in the Beresford. It’s a boldly rare and rarely bold move by Appleby to swing so big with one so unripe, quite the show of faith in Anno Domini.
2. DELACROIX (2)
R L Moore | A P O’Brien
This is Aidan O’Brien’s race, but Delacroix isn’t his normal number one, less the secret star and more the gradual graduate, though the only horse to have beaten him is Green Impact, and there was more than meets the eye to Delacroix’s superficial scramble in the Autumn Stakes, a race that has been a successful stepping stone to the Futurity three times since 2013.
Cut in the ground helped towards his half-sister, Grateful, getting her Group 1 in the Prix du Royallieu, and soft stimulated Delacroix at Newmarket where Ryan Moore coaxed him home without use of the whip, the first two leaving the rest for dead in the finish. Though four races in, there’s a chance he has shown what he wants rather than what he’s got, and it means something that wherever he has gone Ryan Moore has gone with him.
3. DETAIN (1)
K Shoemark | J & T Gosden
He’s what the Ballydoyle principal usually looks like, being a grade-jumper with two “wow” wins behind him, not to mention the fact he’s by Wootton Bassett. He’s much quicker and slicker than his well-known half-brother Arrest who was second in a St Leger, and some of the numbers around his dazzling displays at Kempton say he’s the real deal, topping 40mph (including a 10.94 sectional) in the finish on the first occasion, then making light of a penalty in a style rarely seen, by 7 lengths.
He has all the ingredients of a top-class colt, just a question of whether he can mix them all together this day when the test is that much longer and the competition that much stronger.
4. HOTAZHELL (7)
S Foley | Mrs J Harrington
This year’s Beresford wasn’t near the standard as the renewals in 2017 and 2021 which saw Saxon Warrior and Luxembourg double up at Doncaster, not to underestimate Hotazhell who’s together and tough, as well as tried and tested under the conditions.
His attitude and aptitude make him a nightmare for the unformed starlets abound in the field – just ask Scorthy Champ who finished behind Hotazhell in the Futurity before his big break in the National Stakes. All the same, in a potential-packed line-up, it’s odds-on that the winner at Doncaster will have to run to 115+, and it’s a bigger price than 6-1 that Hotazhell can do that.
5. NEBRAS (8)
Hollie Doyle | J & T Gosden
October 5 and a figurative baton passed at Newmarket, Nashwa on the road to retirement in the Sun Chariot, an hour before her younger half-brother Nebras made the perfect start in what looked and smelled like an above-average maiden, last to first, with a faster final 2f (of 23.88 sec) than Tamfana and co in the Sun Chariot, albeit after a steadier pace.
Fast-tracking to a Group 1 only three weeks later is obviously a big ask, too big an ask in all likelihood, especially an edition as deep as this one, though there have been as many as five once-raced Futurity winners since the turn of the century.
6. ROYAL PLAYWRIGHT (5)
Oisin Murphy | A M Balding
A winning debut followed by placings in the Solario and the Royal Lodge, the Kameko way, likewise powered by Balding and partnered by Murphy, though Royal Playwright is a little lighter following his footprints, and it’s hard to watch the reply of Newmarket and make a cogent case for him reversing the form with Wimbledon Hawkeye.
However, his final furlong was a smidgen sharper than the winner, having handled the Dip less well, and his pedigree is an ongoing portal for progress, out of Juddmonte International winner Arabian Queen. Royal Playwright has so far been effective if not entirely efficient, more room for improvement, and the fact the Futurity traditionally takes longer in the completion than the Royal Lodge will certainly be in his favour, also a good bet that the rider will have something up his sleeve to enact a positive change.
7. SEAPLANE (3)
Billy Loughnane | P & O Cole
The stoutest-bred horse in the line-up (half-brother by Golden Horn to Park Hill winner Sumo Sam), not that you’d guess it from the eager way he has zipped through maidens, third time lucky at Newmarket, the strung-out field suggesting it wasn’t much of a race, but a time comparison with the same day’s Rockfel reveals Seaplane in a bright light, over a second quicker than the 108-rated Bubbling.
His dominance that day is still easier explained than reproduced, not so easy to express himself upped in trip and grade, plus a tongue strap is thought necessary this time.
8. WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE (4)
James Doyle | James Owen
From unknown to undeniable, the relative unknowns of his sire and stable made for misgivings about his march, expressed by SPs of 28-1, 20-1 and 22-1, and he still wasn’t one of the joint-favourites by the time of the Royal Lodge and the performance which made him undeniably one of the best British 2-y-os.
His rating of 114 is higher than the usual standard-setter for a Futurity, elevated and endorsed by Ancient Truth and The Lion In Winter, two of the division’s heaviest hitters, but it was all his own confident and clinical work – in a very good time – in the Royal Lodge, a race in which Kameko was second prior to winning this in 2019. Wimbledon Hawkeye is greater than the sum of his parts and the numbers all add up.
JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT
A fantastic renewal, up to the race standards and status, also a chance of a star in the making amongst the undefeated trio, put to the test against the various Group winners. But this is a preview piece with a betting slant and the horse whose odds underestimate him is ROYAL PLAYWRIGHTwho was regaining ground on Wimbledon Hawkeye at the end of the Royal Lodge and still has many reasons for improving again, tracking the same trajectory as the same stable’s Kameko.
Watch the William Hill Futurity Trophy from Doncaster live on Sky Sports
