It was unusual. At 4:30 pm sharp, the dollar collapsed, the stock market soared and future interest rates collapsed. It was the financial market’s reaction to the news that Lula would undergo a new procedure this Thursday (12) – given by Mônica Bergamo in Folha de S.Paulo.
The dollar hovered at its “new normal”, a little above R$6, until 4:30 pm. From there, it was as if a whistle had sounded, ordering the American currency to plunge. Within minutes, it fell to R$5.92 – a drop of 1.50%.
Later, the dollar would close at R$5.95; -1.49% below yesterday’s closing.
With the stock market, the same phenomenon, with the sign inverted. Ibovespa operated at 127.8 thousand points at 4:30 pm. At 4:40 pm, it was 130.8 thousand. Treble 2.3% in 10 minutes.
At 6 pm, the index would close up 1.06%, at 129.5 thousand points.
Future interest rates, which serve as a thermometer for the direction of the Selic over the horizon, began to fall around 30 basis points (-0.32). An absolutely out-of-the-curve movement, which was reflected in IPCA+ public bonds.
The real interest rate on the most popular bond in this group, the one maturing in 2035, was at 6.83% just before 4:30 pm.
When news of the new procedure came, the bond market went to auction – a sign of anomalous movement. The title later resurfaced on the Treasury Direct screen with the rate at 6.72%.
On Tuesday (10), the title had closed at 6.89%. Today, it closed at 6.72%. In more tangible terms: this means that, if you have money at IPCA+2035, your balance increased by 1.7% in one day. Something unrealistic for a fixed income security.
Yet another example that we are experiencing one of the most anomalous moments in the history of reality.
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