O dollar closed close to stability against the real this Monday (9), but renewed its all-time high, with concerns about the Brazilian fiscal scenario more than offsetting the positive momentum for emerging currencies abroad, amid investor expectations local data on domestic inflation and the meeting of the Copom.
The spot dollar ended the day up 0.09%, quoted at R$6.08225 — the highest closing nominal value in history.
At 5:24 p.m., at B3first maturity dollar futures contract fell 0.12%, to R$6.095 on sale.
In this session, foreign investors took long positions in a series of emerging currencies, such as the South African rand and the Chilean peso, reflecting momentum generated by news from China.
Chinese state media reported earlier that the country will adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy next year as part of measures to support economic growth, marking the first shift towards easing since 2010.
The news was well received in emerging markets, with financial agents looking for assets linked to commoditiesas prices of key commodities such as oil and iron ore rose. China is the largest importer of raw materials on the planet.
The dollar index — which measures the US currency’s performance against a basket of six currencies — rose 0.24% to 106.200.
In Brazil, however, the information did not have the same effect on the real, with local investors very focused on the upcoming economic events this week and the government’s efforts to approve its spending containment measures in Congress later this year.
The market received badly the decision of Minister Flávio Dino, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), to reject an appeal presented by the Attorney General’s Office (AGU) to review the rules he had defined last week to allow the transfer of parliamentary amendments. .
Sources told the Reuters that the decision would have halted the progress of the fiscal package in the Chamber of Deputies and threatened to postpone the vote on the measures in the House until 2025.
The wait for November’s IPCA data, on Tuesday, and the Copom’s decision, on Wednesday, still caused the North American currency to fluctuate within narrow margins in this session.
The dollar reached the session’s highest price of R$6.0898 (+0.22%) at 4:26 pm, close to closing, having reached a minimum of R$6.03725 (-0.65%) at 11:52 am.
Analysts consulted by the Central Bank began to see inflation above the ceiling of the target pursued by the autarchy — with a center of 3% and a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points up or down — this year and next.
The Focus survey showed that economists now predict IPCA increases of 4.84% and 4.59% respectively in 2024 and 2025, from 4.71% and 4.40% previously.
“Given the deterioration we forecast for inflation in 2025 and 2026 and the further unanchoring of expectations amid a resilient economic activity framework, we maintain our view that the Central Bank will need to reassess its tightening cycle and accelerate the pace at the meeting. December,” BTG Pactual analysts said in a note.
Operators placed a 74% chance of a 1 percentage point increase in the Selic on Wednesday, against a 26% probability of an increase of 0.75 points. On Friday, the chance of a greater movement was 59%.
At the end of the morning, the Central Bank sold all 15,000 traditional currency swap contracts offered at auction to roll over the maturity date of January 2, 2025.
