Soybeans lost leadership of Brazil’s export list to oil, from January to November, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), in a rare event in the last decade that indicates how the ranking of the main products exported by the country will end in 2024.
The only time since 2015 that soybeans were not leaders in the country’s export revenue was in 2021, when iron ore won handily. In addition to being the largest producer and exporter of soybeans, Brazil is also one of the largest for the mineral raw material.
Oil had only surpassed soybeans as Brazil’s main export product – from January to November and also for the entire year – in 2012. But in that year, iron ore led the Brazilian export agenda, according to historical data from Secex.
Brazil, the largest global exporter of soybeans, is exporting 1.3% lower volumes in 2024 compared to the 2023 records due to crop failure. But oilseed prices plummeted by almost 17%, implying export revenue with a similar percentage drop to US$42 billion in the year to November.
Brazil’s oil exports are at record levels, totaling 85.45 million tons from January to November, an increase of 14.4% compared to the same period last year, according to data from Secex, released the day before.
This growth in exports occurs with the increase in oil production in the pre-salt.
As oil prices fell less in the year to date, being around 4% lower compared to 2023, according to Secex, export revenue rose driven by volumes to 42.76 billion dollars, guaranteeing the commodity’s leadership in 2024.
With less than a month left until 2024 ends, it is unlikely that the oilseed will regain leadership this year, as its shipments are decreasing in the off-season.
According to an estimate by the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec), soybean exports should total just 1.2 million tons in December, the lowest volume of the year.
“In November, oil already took the lead and in December it will expand its lead,” said the president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), José Augusto de Castro, to Reuters.
But he does not consider this to be a trend for the coming years, and soybeans could return to the top of the export agenda.
“This year the drop in soybean prices of around 20% and the increase in the amount of oil made the result”, he added.
Iron ore, another important commodity for Brazil’s exports, which generally forms the trio of most important exports, accumulated revenue of 27.6 billion dollars in the year up to November.
