After 24 years in power, more than half of them in a war against his own people, Bashar al-Assad was deposed this Sunday (8) during a surprise incursion by Syrian rebels, who took over the country’s main cities until reaching the capital, Damascus. . Russia confirmed that Assad resigned from office and left the country, leaving instructions for a “peaceful transition of power”.
The dictator’s fall opens a new chapter of tension for the Middle East, which in recent weeks had begun a process of de-escalation of the neighboring conflict between Israel and Lebanon.
As a result, the price of oil could be the main one affected, depending on the degree of instability of the transition and who takes control of the Syrian oil reserves, the most important in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Before the war, production reached 400,000 barrels per day, but fell to less than 25,000 in 2018.
But, according to analysts, other factors also weigh on the interests of the international community, with direct effects on the world economy. The two main ones are security and migration, with the Syrian population representing more than 6.3 million refugees worldwide, according to the United Nations’ UNHCR.
A fourth risk is that the groups will not be able to reach an agreement and the country will end up fragmented and with new outbreaks of violence and regional destabilization.
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Power vacuum
The first concern, according to experts, is the difficulty for the coalition of rebel groups to reach an agreement from now on. “It will be extremely challenging for the entire coalition, because it is a diverse coalition,” Becky Anderson, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, told CNN.
“Some groups are more structured, more organized”, while others “are more local entities”, he explained.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Freddy Khoueiry, a global security analyst at RANE, said that “the collapse will likely trigger a political process to create an interim government contested between rival rebel factions.”
The group that led the recent insurgent advance is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, also known as HTS. He is a Sunni who split from al-Qaeda in 2016. Since then, he has tried to position himself as more moderate. Even so, it has been designated a terrorist organization by the US and other countries.
Ahmed Al-Sharaa, leader of the group, who adopted the name Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, stated in an interview with CNN on Friday (5) that non-Muslims and other minorities would be safe in the Syrian areas supervised by HTS. He also attributed the success of opposition forces to greater discipline and unity.
“The revolution has gone from chaos and randomness to a state of order,” he said.
External interests
Researcher HA Hellyer, from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explained, in an interview with CNN, that the group seems focused on filling the power vacuum as soon as possible, but it will be impossible to make the transition from rebellion to government authority. “They will need help and assistance. And now it is in everyone’s interest regionally, but also internationally, for Syria to be able to get back on its feet.”
According to RANE’s Khoueiry, the transition process “is likely to be slow and prone to violence as foreign actors attempt to shape the post-war balance of power, making an unstable and fragmented Syria the most likely outcome in the short term.”
Furthermore, he said that other countries must act in moderation and stabilization of the country, such as Turkey, Qatar and other Gulf and European nations, bringing their own interests to the table.
A Türkiyefor example, tries at all costs to prevent the expansion of Kurdistan. And it is the country that has welcomed the most Syrian refugees since the start of the war (in 2022, there were around 4 million), with a considerable impact on the economy.
Tehranin turn, lost much of its influence in the region with Assad’s escape. THE Hezbollahwhich supported the Syrian dictator, is currently weakened by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Lebanon, which de-escalated in recent weeks, after months of tension.
READ MORE: In October, Israel’s ‘restrained’ attack on Iran helped contain conflict in the region
There is also the role of Russia. In a statement released this Sunday (8), Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that “Russia did not participate in these negotiations” that led to Assad’s escape and that “the Russian Federation is in contact with all opposition groups Syria”.
Russia and Iran were Assad’s two major financiers in the brutal repression against the Syrian population since 2011, which left more than 600,000 dead and caused 12 million people to flee their homes – more than half of the total population.
The reconstruction of the country, especially in the most resistant enclaves – and most affected by air strikes promoted by Russia – must also involve interests from several parties.
US and Israel watch
Even less clear is the role of USAwho avoided getting involved in the conflict from the beginning. On Saturday (7), as rebels arrived in Damascus, the next American president, Donald Trump, took to social media to say that the US should have “nothing to do” with developments in Syria.
“This is not our fight. Let it unfold. Don’t get involved!”, he said, who also stated that Russia “was no longer interested in protecting (Assad)”.
The current US government, under President Joe Biden’s administration, has also shown little inclination to intervene and has stated that the US had nothing to do with the HTS rebellion.
The US and Israel are watching cautiously. Assad was not their ally and Washington imposed severe sanctions on the Syrian government. But HTS is designated a terrorist organization by the US and other Western countries.
Neighbor of Syria, Israel reported on Sunday morning (8) that it had deployed forces in a buffer zone close to the border to protect communities in the Golan Heights, which lies between the two countries.
The Israeli army added that it is not involved in what is happening in Syria.
Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, stated that “you must remember that these rebels are not lovers of Zion,” during an interview with Israeli broadcaster Channel 14. “It is true that everyone today is celebrating the weakening of Iran — something that It is certainly very significant from a regional point of view. But there is also concern that parties aligned with terrorist organizations may use Assad’s weapons against Israel.
From Europe, the initial messages after Assad’s overthrow were calls for moderation.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of GermanyAnnalena Baerbock, warned in a statement that “the country must not now fall into the hands of other radicals — whatever the disguise.” Already the France called on its partners to “do everything possible to help Syrians find the path to reconciliation and reconstruction through an inclusive political solution.”
The path to the fall of Assad
Bashar al-Assad inherited the presidency of Syria in 2000, following the death of his father, who promoted authoritarian rule in the country for 29 years. Assad junior took over with promises of reform and economic liberalization.
The tone changed a year later, with the repression of pro-democracy protests. In 2011, at the height of the Arab Spring, when Arab heads of state in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen gave in to uprisings. street protests had also reached Syria.
But Assad’s violent reaction to protesters escalated the conflict into a protracted civil war and empowered radical groups, including Islamic State.
The US and other Western nations have accused the dictator of using barrel bombs, torture and chemical weapons to stifle dissent.
He benefited from the fact that the opposition was fragmented into hundreds of predominantly Islamist groups, which the US and its allies supported only cautiously. Former President Barack Obama and his successor, Donald Trump, ordered waves of airstrikes against Assad strongholds but had little appetite for deeper intervention.
