The dollar closed lower against the real for the second consecutive session this Wednesday (11), with investors digesting positive news for emerging markets abroad and making adjustments given the historically high levels of the US currency.
The spot dollar ended the session down 1.47%, quoted at R$5.959. This was the first time that the American currency closed below R$6.00 this month.
On B3, at 5:04 pm, the first maturity dollar futures contract fell 1.40%, to R$5.972 on sale.
At the end of the morning, the Central Bank sold all 15,000 traditional currency swap contracts offered at auction to roll over the January 2, 2025 maturity date.
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Interest rate cut expectations
The US government reported earlier that the country’s consumer price index registered an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis in November, above the 0.2% increase in the previous month, but exactly in line with what was expected by economists consulted by Reuters. The annual gain was 2.7%.
In the case of the core, the increase was also 0.3% in the month, as projected by analysts, marking an increase of 3.3% on an annual basis.
Although the result demonstrates a stagnation in the US disinflation process towards the 2% target, the lack of surprises provided greater certainty to markets that the Fed will cut interest rates again at next week’s meeting.
Improvement of the risk scenario
DI rates fell this Wednesday (11) for the medium and long term, with the market making adjustments and showing optimism with the progress of the fiscal package in Congress, while interest rates for short-term maturities rose due to the perception that the Copom will accelerate the pace of Selic tightening.
At the end of the afternoon, the DI (Interbank Deposit) rate for January 2025 was at 12.009%, compared to 11.96% in the previous adjustment. The contract rate for January 2027 was 14.47%, compared to the previous adjustment of 14.685%.
“There is a movement towards cooling rates. We spent many sessions with all rates above 14%, which is a lot. So there is a technical reversal”, said Larissa Quaresma, analyst at Empiricus Research.
In a similar movement to the previous session, financial agents also showed greater optimism regarding the possibility of approval of government spending containment measures in Congress later this year.
The government published on Tuesday (10) an ordinance detailing procedures and deadlines for the release of parliamentary amendments, an instrument at the center of the uneasiness between the Executive and Legislative branches.
The president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said he will work for a consensus so that the fiscal package measures can be voted on this week.
“This helps, because there was always the possibility that Congress would not support the package or dehydrate it. So, as this discussion progresses, this helps with this correction”, stated Quaresma.
*With information from Reuters
