The global airline industry is expected to earn $36.6 billion in net revenue in 2025, driven by a record 5.2 billion passengers in the skies, the leading trade group said. lobby of the sector in its annual forecast.
The outlook represents a 16% gain over 2024 figures. Industry profit margins will be 3.6%, higher than the 3.3% margins in 2024, the International Air Transport Association reported in Tuesday (10). Lower oil prices and higher demand will boost profitability, while potential tariffs and trade wars from the new Trump administration could harm the sector’s prospects, the industry group said.
IATA also expects industry revenue to exceed US$1 trillion for the first time in 2025.
“Costs are being heavily impacted by delays in acquiring new aircraft while keeping older aircraft in service,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Although next year will be better financially, I think it would have been a lot better if we hadn’t faced all these supply chain issues.”
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Although the aviation sector has seen demand rebound sharply following the pandemic, profit margins remain razor-thin. Airlines are grappling with supply chain disruptions, which are delaying deliveries of newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft and keeping existing planes grounded for maintenance longer.
North America remained the largest profit contributor to the global industry in 2024, although margins were at lower levels than before the pandemic due to slower aircraft deliveries and higher costs, especially for low-cost carriers. , said IATA. The Middle East recorded the strongest financial performance and was the only region where passenger earnings increased, thanks to strong demand for premium long-haul travel.
European airlines, by comparison, have been hit by fleet groundings, rising wages, higher airport fees and taxes that have affected competitiveness in 2024, according to IATA. The lobby group sees an improvement in profitability in 2025 when low-cost airlines return to flying with grounded aircraft.
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IATA said its outlook is subject to change if wars in Ukraine and the Middle East worsen or if oil prices do not fall.
“There is no safety or security risk when transiting Russian airspace,” Walsh said. “We hope that peace returns to the region and that this leads to the reopening of parts of the airspace.”
