You can tell a lie by telling only the truth, as I said that famous W/Brasil commercial. In some way, this applies to the subject of this report: the devaluation of electric cars on the used market.
Let’s go to one of these truths. In 2021, a Nissan Leaf cost zero R$ 278 mil. It was a discreet electric hatch, not much bigger than a Chevrolet Onix; and it cost, at the time, the same as a good Mercedes with a combustion engine, the C200.
Today, a 2021 Leaf costs R$ 121,7 mil by the Fipe table. Anyone who bought one back then and wants to sell it now will be in for a 56% loss (in nominal value, not counting inflation).
Anyone who bought a C200 doesn’t have this problem. According to Fipe, a 2021 model is coming R$283 thousand today – 2% nominal gain. Not bad. There is a fund that has yielded less than that since 2021 – without including the use of a Mercedes for three years in the package.
Another classic case of devaluation: that of Audi e-tron. In 2021, the “Performance Black” variant of this spacecraft costs R$ 615 mil. More than a basic nothing Porsche Boxter GTS 4.0 (R$609 thousand at the time).
READ MORE: The flood of Porsches in Brazil
Now the e-tron from three years ago is worth much less: R$412,000 from Fipe. The Porsche? R$700 thousand. In other words: who took an e-tron and is selling it now loses 33%. And whoever took a Boxter, combustion, earn 15%.
OK. Mercedes and Porsche are not always good references – the luxury market has its schizophrenia. So let’s compare here with something more frugal: the T-Cross Highline.
In 2021, this VW 1.3 turbo cost R$137,000 (good times…). Today, a used car from three years ago costs R$113,000. 17% loss. Much lower than the -33 of the e-tron or the -56% of the Leaf.
Case closed. It is a fact that electric cars with a few years of use are losing more value than combustion cars. But this is only part of the story, because an essential fact has not yet come into play here.
Let’s go to him.
Dolphin: smooth devaluation
An electric car is a character that only took shape on the national automotive scene now, in 2024 – this year, until October, sales were 420% bigger than in the same period last year, which constitutes a Big Bang.
The creator of this big explosion is, in large part, BYD. 60% of trams sold in Brazil are either Dolphin Mini (17.1 thousand between January and October) or ‘normal’ Dolphin (13.1 thousand), the Chinese brand’s best sellers. And it’s worth mentioning the Ora 03, from rival GWM (2.9 thousand), whose sales have also picked up.
These three models cost around a hundred thousand reais – little by 2024 standards – and have a huge advantage over older trams: autonomy for adults.
READ MORE: What to know before buying a hybrid car
Let’s go back to the Nissan Leaf. Its 2021 version, which we talk about here, could run up to 192 km with a load – by Inmetro measurement. It cost R$278,000 three years ago, right? Well, counting inflation, this gives R$ 322 mil in today’s money.
The Dolphin Mini costs a fraction of that, R$ 115 mil. And the autonomy is almost 50% greater: 280 km. The Ora 03 GT and Dolphin Plus, the most expensive versions of these two electric cars, make 320 km e 330 km. Both cost a little less than R$ 190 mil.
With so much autonomy available at much lower prices than just a few years ago, it is obvious that the Leaf’s price would plummet on the used market.
And the e-tron too. Do you know what his autonomy was in 2021? 246 km – smaller than that of a Dolphin Mini. Then there is no one to appeal to. An extraordinary evolution took place, which made cars that were still young enough to be called pre-owned obsolete. The electric versions of the Renault Kwid, the Peugeot 2008, the Caoa Cherry iCar…
Among used electric cars of this generationthe opposite happens: devaluation has been lower than that of combustion models. The best-selling, the Dolphin Mini, cannot yet be determined, as it has not been on the market for a year. Neither does the Ora 03, for the same reason.
But the regular Dolphin has been with us longer. Then it could be our guinea pig. A basic one from 2023, with one year of use, costs R$ 129 mil in the Fipe table. 13.8% less compared to last year’s price (R$ 149 thousand).
To give you an idea: the devaluation of the Hyundai Creta, the country’s best-selling car at retail, was 16% in this same case. That of the Jeep Renegade, another favorite of the general public, 15,6%.
Ok. But there is another fact that contributes to the accelerated depreciation of older trams: distrust regarding battery durability. In a year, that doesn’t count. As automakers give up to eight years of warranty on it, it is known that in 12 months there will not be a big difference. So this does not affect the price of used cars from a year ago.
But when it goes beyond that, worry comes into play. A cell phone turns into a brick in a few years, and no one wants that to happen to a car.
However, this concern has little basis: batteries last longer than common sense imagines, as we will see now.
82.5% battery life in 10 years
To better understand this part, it is worth looking at the case of Model STesla’s first sedan. It is one of the few electric vehicles on the global market with more than 10 years behind it; and even in the remote past it already had a great range – up to 400 km, depending on the version.
NimbleFins, a British insurer, made a study based on 625 of these Teslasbased on information sent by owners between 2013 and 2022. And concluded the following: ten-year-old models retain, on average, 82,5% of the original battery capacity. This means that a 2013 Model S with 400 km of autonomy reached 2023 with 330 km.
Your cell phone Certainly I wouldn’t do that. In 10 years, it becomes a landline – it only works when plugged in all day.
It was all a lie from the British insurance company, then? No. Because we are talking about different animals. “All electrified car batteries have cooling systems, which greatly increase their useful life; unlike cell phones. This is why the comparison is not valid”, said GWM Brasil in a note to the InvestNews. That’s the difference.
Right. But what about after ten years? Does the car turn into a pumpkin?
It even turns. But you can still make a puree with this pumpkin. Another study, now from the Canadian Geotaba digital fleet management company, shows that today’s electrics have the potential to reach 20 years with battery at 64% of the original capacity. A car that was born with a range of 400 km would then last 256 km; one of 300 km, 192 km (always on average, of course, as durability varies according to the intensity of use).
It’s not the end of the world, but of course the resale value implodes. In the world of combustion cars, however, it’s the same thing. A 2004 Toyota Corolla Death comes to everyone.
But nothing we’ve said so far justifies another fact: that the price of used electric vehicles is falling sharply abroad, even among those that have always had good autonomy (Teslas). The answer to this paradox is below.
22% progress in five years
What caught on abroad was a change in Tesla’s business model – which dominates the market in the US and Europe. In 2023, it reduced the price of its cars by up to 30%. It was a turnaround. Instead of making a margin by charging as much as possible on relatively few cars, the automaker decided to operate in volume, earning less per vehicle but selling more units. It’s from the game. And other automakers followed in Elon Musk’s footsteps, cutting prices.
But this caused the value of used trams to collapse, since the price of new cars is the main reference there.
A Model S 85D, the one with 400 km of autonomy, cost US$ 89,4 mil in 2015. Today, its average price on the used market there is US$ 22 milaccording to Cars.com. From the 75% of devaluation.
READ MORE: Used electric car becomes a bargain in the USA
Yes, in the USA used cars depreciate more than in Brazil. The average salary there is equivalent to R$28 thousand per month, compared to R$3.5 thousand here. So there’s more left over to buy a new car. There is so much left that the best-selling vehicle there is a large pickup truck, the F-150.
Still, 75% loss is a bomb. An intermediate F-150 cost US$39,000 there in 2015. A used one from that same year costs US$20,300 today. Drop of just 48%.
However, the F-150 did not undergo price cuts for the zero version. To compare correctly, then, there is only one way: beat the value of the used car with that of a new one, from 2024.
A new Model S costs US$76,700. Comparing it with the used price of 2015, we have a less serious devaluation, of 71%.
Doing the same calculation for the F-150, whose zero model is at US$63.2, what there is is a drop in… 68%.
And that. Taking the forced drop in price from scratch out of the equation, the devaluation of a nine-year-old Tesla is similar to the the best-selling combustion car in the United States.
This shows that the “fear of battery durability” factor is, at least, less relevant in the American market. Otherwise, the difference between both used vehicles in relation to their zero km counterparts would be much greater.
But there is another. The rapid evolution of electric vehicles could also affect the value of today’s models in the used market of the future. In a 2019 study (also by Geotab, that Canadian company), they concluded that batteries lost 2.3% of capacity each year. In their most recent study, which we mentioned earlier, they found that this average rate had dropped to 1.8% in 2024. So, we have progress of 22% in five years.
Legal. But if the evolution of batteries continues at this rate, some electric vehicles today could also experience devaluations outside the curve in the future – especially those with shorter autonomyas these are the ones that tend to obsolescence the fastest.
It’s a not very convenient truth for anyone who is buying an electric car now. But that’s also part of the game.
