Municipal elections will be decided not second shift in 51 cities this Sunday (27). In these locations, no candidate achieved an absolute majority of votes in the first round. Thus, voters will have to choose one of the two candidates with the most votes in the 1st round, which took place on October 6, to decide who will be mayor.
It’s like a new election. The votes that candidates won in the first round do not count in this second stage. Start everything from scratch. But the percentage of valid votes that each candidate obtained in the first round is an important indicator of the real possibilities of each candidate being elected.
READ MORE: What are the voting times for the second round?
In general, the candidate who finished with the most votes in the first round has a better chance of confirming this majority and also winning in the second round. Game “turns” are rare — but they happen.
In the last three municipal elections, in around one to four cities where there was a second round, the candidate who received the fewest votes in the first round turned the tables and was elected. Look:
Election upsets
In Rio de Janeiro, César Maia won two of the three elections he contested in a landslide. The first was in 1992, when, as a PMDB candidate, he was behind Benedita da Silva (PT) in the first round, but surpassed his opponent in the second round. In 2000, already in the PTB, Maia had fewer votes than Luiz Paulo Conde (PFL) in the first round, but defeated his opponent in the second round.
In 2012, in the election for mayor of Curitiba, Gustavo Fruet (PDT) was in the first round behind Ratinho Jr. (PSC), but won in the second round, practically doubling his number of votes.
Also in 2012, in São Paulo, Fernando Haddad (PT), now Minister of Finance, was behind José Serra (PSDB) in the first round, but surpassed Serra in the second round and became mayor of the capital of São Paulo. Haddad starred in the only time São Paulo had an upset in the second round. In all others, the candidate who finished first in the first round was elected mayor. See below:
1992
1st round
Paulo Maluf (PDS) – 2,036,776 votes – 48.85%
Suplicy (PT) – 1,279,231 votes – 30.68%
2nd round
Paulo Maluf (PDS) – 2,805,201 votes – 58.08% (elected)
Suplicy (PT) – 2,024,957 votes – 41.92%
1996
1st round
Celso Pitta (PPB) – 2,541,150 votes – 48.24%
Luiza Erundina (PT) – 1,291,120 votes – 24.51%
2nd round
Celso Pitta (PPB) – 3,178,330 votes – 62.28% (elected)
Luiza Erundina (PT) – 1,924,630 – 37.72%
2000
1st round
Marta Suplicy (PT) – 2,105,013 votes – 34.40%
Paulo Maluf (PPB) – 960,581 votes – 17.40%
2nd round
Marta Suplicy (PT) – 3,247,900 votes – 58.51% (elected)
Paulo Maluf (PPB) – 2,303,623 votes – 41.49%
2004
1st round
José Serra (PSDB) – 2,686,396 votes – 43.56%
Marta Suplicy (PT) – 2,209,264 votes – 35.82%
2nd round
José Serra (PSDB) – 3,330,179 votes – 54.86% (elected)
Marta Suplicy (PT) – 2,740,152 votes – 45.14%
2008
1st round
Gilberto Kassab (DEM) – 3,790,558 votes – 33.61%
Marta Suplicy (PT) – 2,088,329 votes – 32.79%
2nd round
Gilberto Kassab (DEM) – 2,140,423 votes – 60.72% (elected)
Marta Suplicy (PT) – 2,452,527 votes – 39.28%
2012
1st round
José Serra (PSDB) – 1,884,849 votes – 30.75%
Fernando Haddad (PT) – 1,776,317 votes – 28.98%
2nd round
Fernando Haddad (PT) – 3,387,720 votes – 55.57% (elected)
José Serra (PSDB) – 2,708,768 votes – 44.43%
2016
1st round
João Doria (PSDB) – 3,085,187 votes – 53.29% (elected)
Fernando Haddad (PT) – 967,190 votes – 16.70%
2020
1st round
Bruno Covas (PSDB) – 1,754,013 votes – 32.85%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) – 1,080,736 votes – 20.24%
2nd round
Bruno Covas (PSDB) – 3,169,121 votes – 59.38% (elected)
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) – 2,168,109 votes – 40.62%
2024 (ongoing)
1st round
Ricardo Nunes (MDB) – 1,801,139 votes – 29.48%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) – 1,776,127 votes – 29.07%
