You can tell a lie by telling only the truth, as I said that famous W/Brasil commercial. In some way, this applies to the subject of this report: the devaluation of electric cars on the used market.
Let’s go to one of these truths. In 2021, a Nissan Leaf cost zero R$ 278 mil. It was a discreet electric hatch, not much bigger than a Chevrolet Onix; and it cost, at the time, the same as a good Mercedes with a combustion engine, the C200.
Today, a 2021 Leaf costs R$ 121,7 mil by the Fipe table. Anyone who bought one back then and wants to sell it now will be in for a 56% loss (in nominal value, not counting inflation).
Anyone who bought a C200 doesn’t have this problem. According to Fipe, a 2021 model is coming R$283 thousand today – 2% nominal gain. Not bad. There is a fund that has yielded less than that since 2021 – without including the use of a Mercedes for three years in the package.
Another classic case of devaluation: that of Audi e-tron. In 2021, the “Performance Black” variant of this spacecraft costs R$ 615 mil. More than a basic nothing Porsche Boxter GTS 4.0 (R$609 thousand at the time).
READ MORE: The flood of Porsches in Brazil
Now the e-tron from three years ago is worth much less: R$412,000 from Fipe. The Porsche? R$700 thousand. In other words: who took an e-tron and is selling it now 33% loss in nominal. And whoever took a Boxter, combustion, earn 15%.
OK. Mercedes and Porsche are not always good references – the luxury market has its schizophrenia. So let’s compare here with something more frugal: the T-Cross Highline.
In 2021, this VW 1.3 turbo cost R$137,000 (good times…). Today, a used car from three years ago costs R$113,000. 17% loss. Much lower than the -33 of the e-tron or the -56% of the Leaf.
Case closed. It is a fact that electric cars with a few years of use are losing more value than combustion cars. But this is only part of the story, because an essential fact has not yet come into play here.
Let’s go to him.
Dolphin: smooth devaluation
An electric car is a character that only took shape on the national automotive scene now, in 2024 – this year, until October, sales were 420% bigger than in the same period last year, which constitutes a Big Bang.
The creator of this big explosion is, in large part, BYD. 60% of trams sold in Brazil are either Dolphin Mini (17.1 thousand between January and October) or ‘normal’ Dolphin (13.1 thousand), the Chinese brand’s best sellers. It is also worth mentioning the Ora 03, from rival GWM (2.9 thousand), whose sales have also picked up.
These three models cost around a hundred thousand reais – little by 2024 standards – and have a huge advantage over older trams: autonomy for adults.
READ MORE: What to know before buying a hybrid car
Let’s go back to the Nissan Leaf. Its 2021 version, which we talk about here, could run up to 192 km with a load – by Inmetro measurement. It cost R$278,000 three years ago, right? Well, counting inflation, this gives R$ 322 mil in today’s money.
The Dolphin Mini costs a fraction of that, R$ 115 mil. And the autonomy is almost 50% greater: 280 km. The Ora 03 GT and Dolphin Plus, the most expensive versions of these two electric cars, make 320 km e 330 km. Both cost a little less than R$ 190 mil.
With so much autonomy at much lower prices than just a few years ago, it is obvious that the Leaf’s price would plummet on the used market.
And the e-tron too. Do you know what his autonomy was in 2021? 246 km – smaller than that of a Dolphin Mini. Then there is no one to appeal to. An extraordinary evolution took place, which made cars that were still young enough to be called pre-owned obsolete.
Among used cars of this generation, devaluation is smaller than that of combustion models. The best-selling, the Dolphin Mini, cannot yet be determined, as it has not been on the market for a year. Neither does the Ora 03, for the same reason.
But the regular Dolphin has been with us longer. Then it could be our guinea pig. A basic one from 2023, with one year of use, costs R$ 129 mil in the Fipe table. 13.8% less compared to last year’s price (R$ 149 thousand).
To give you an idea: the devaluation of the Hyundai Creta, the country’s best-selling car at retail, was 16% in this same case. That of the Jeep Renegade, another favorite of the general public, 15,6%.
OK. Here comes another question. One factor that contributes to the devaluation of older trams is distrust regarding the battery’s durability. In a year, that doesn’t count. As automakers give up to eight years of warranty on it, it is known that in 12 or 24 months there will not be a big difference.
But when it goes beyond that, worry enters the scene. A cell phone turns into a brick in a few years, and no one wants that to happen to a car. But batteries last longer than common sense imagines.
82.5% battery life in 10 years
To better understand this part, it is worth looking at the case of Model STesla’s first sedan. It is one of the few models on the global market with more than 10 years behind it; and that it always had a legal autonomy of 400 km.
NimbleFins, a British insurer, made a study based on 625 of these Teslasbased on information sent by owners between 2013 and 2022.
Conclusion: ten-year-old models retain, on average, 82,5% of the original battery capacity. This means that the 2013 Model S with 400 km of autonomy reached 2023 with 330 km on average.
Your cell phone Certainly I wouldn’t do that. In 10 years, it becomes a landline – it only works when plugged in all day.
It was all a lie from the British insurance company, then? No. Because we are talking about different animals. “All batteries in electrified cars have cooling systems, which increase their useful life; unlike cell phones. This is why the comparison is not valid”, said GWM Brasil in a note to the InvestNews. That’s the difference.
OK. But what about after ten years? Does the car turn into a pumpkin?
It even turns. But you can still make a puree with this pumpkin. Another study, now from the Canadian Geotaba digital fleet management company, shows that today’s electric vehicles have the potential to last 20 years with the battery at 64% capacity, on average – a car with an original range of 400 km would then last 256 km; one of 300 km, 192 km.
It’s still good for use in the city. But of course, then the resale value implodes. But in the world of cars, combustion is the same thing. A 2004 Toyota Corolla And the issue there is not just battery or motor, of course; Each of the car’s components wears off over time. Death comes to everyone.
But nothing we say here justifies another fact: that the price of used electric vehicles is falling sharply abroad, even among those that have always had good autonomy (Teslas). The answer to this paradox is below.
22% progress in five years
What caught on abroad was a change in Tesla’s business model – which dominates the market in the US and Europe. In 2023, it reduced the price of its cars by up to 30%. It was a turnaround. Instead of making a margin by charging as much as possible on relatively few cars, Tesla decided to operate on volume – earning less per vehicle but selling more units. It’s from the game. And other automakers followed in Elon Musk’s footsteps, cutting prices.
But this caused the price of used trams to collapse, since the new value is the big reference there.
A Model S 85D cost US$ 89,4 mil in 2015. Today, the average price on the used market there is US$ 22 milaccording to Cars.com. From the 75% of devaluation.
READ MORE: Used electric car becomes a bargain in the USA
Yes, in the USA used ones depreciate more than here. The average salary there is equivalent to R$28 thousand per month, compared to R$3.5 thousand here. So there’s more left over to buy a new car. There is so much left that the best-selling vehicle there is a large pickup truck, the F-150.
Still, 75% loss is a bomb. An intermediate F-150 cost US$39,000 there in 2015. A used one from that same year costs US$20,300 today. Loss of just 48%.
But the F-150 didn’t undergo price cuts from scratch. To compare correctly, then, there is only one way: beat the value of the used car with that of a new one, 2024.
A new Model S costs US$76,700. Comparing it with the used price of 2015, we have a less serious devaluation of 71%.
Doing the same calculation for the F-150, whose zero model is priced at US$63.2, we have a drop of… 68%.
And that. Taking the forced drop in price from scratch out of the equation, the devaluation of a nine-year-old Tesla is similar to the the best-selling car in the United States.
This shows that the “fear of battery durability” factor is, at least, less relevant in the American market. Otherwise, the difference between both used vehicles in relation to their zero km counterparts would be much greater.
But there is another. Geotab, that Canadian company, concluded that the average autonomy of electric vehicles is gradually increasing. In another study of theirs, from 2019, they discovered that batteries lost 2.3% in relation to their original autonomy each year. In the second study, which we mentioned earlier, they found that this average rate dropped to 1.8%. So, we have progress of 22% in five years.
Legal. But if the evolution of batteries continues at this rate, some of today’s electric vehicles may also experience steep devaluations in the used market – especially those with shorter autonomy, as these are the ones that tend to obsolescence the fastest.
A not very convenient truth for those who are buying an electric car now. But that’s also part of the game.
