Iron ore shipments from the biggest bulk export terminal hit a record for the month of November, putting flows from the Australian hub on track for the highest annual volumes even as steel mills struggle in China.
Exports from Port Hedland rose to 48.8 million tonnes last month, up around 8% on the previous year, according to data from the Pilbara Ports Authority. YTD cargoes expanded to 521.1 million tonnes, on track to surpass the annual record of 560 million tonnes set in 2022.
Iron ore prices have fallen about 25% this year as major miners in Australia and Brazil ramp up production while China grapples with a prolonged housing crisis that has sapped demand for steel. The Port Hedland complex in Western Australia moves cargo for producers including BHP Group and Fortescue, and its operations are a useful indicator for national flows.
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For 2025, many banks are pessimistic about iron ore prospects due to increased supply — including potential early production from the giant Simandou project in Guinea — and subdued Chinese demand. Among them, ING Groep stated this week that the commodity is still “prepared to fight”.
Exports from Brazil — the second largest producer of the commodity — are also expanding, pointing to a well-supplied market. Shipments were 33.7 million tons last month, according to government data. This represents an increase of more than 7% compared to the previous year, and is close to the all-time high recorded for the month of November.
Iron ore is expected to average $96 per ton next year, and $80 in 2026, as mine supplies increase and steel production in China stabilizes, according to Macquarie Group . So far in 2024, futures have averaged just under $110 per ton in Singapore, after briefly dipping below $90 in September.
Port stocks of iron ore in China — another barometer of conditions in the international market for iron ore shipments — also point to abundant supply. The total rose to 148.2 million tons, an increase of 1.4% compared to last week, according to data from Shanghai Steelhome E-Commerce, released on Friday. Inventories increased 29% year to date.
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