Auctions are often evaluated only from the buyers’ side. How many bidders participated? How many countries did they come from? And how much were they willing to pay? But on the eve of New York’s autumn mega-sales, where Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips will attempt to sell around $1.5 billion worth of art in just one week, the market’s true prospects can perhaps be better assessed by sellers.
“We are a market that is not forced,” says Alex Rotter, chairman of the 20th and 21st century art department at Christie’s. “That means there’s more movement when things are booming, right? Which makes sense because it’s not like anyone relies on selling a little Warhol to feed their kids.”
In other words, people sell when they believe the market is strong; when it is not there, they often hold its pieces. And that’s why sellers have been holding back for at least a year.
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May’s big auctions in New York were disappointing; the same happened with Art Basel in Switzerland, widely considered the most important art fair in the world. The London auctions in October were similarly underwhelming, and although the auctions and art fairs in Paris last month showed signs of life, no one would classify them as frenetic. In general, Rotter states that the scenario before the November auctions “was a difficult situation, because it was quite static”.
As a result, next week’s auctions include the season’s top two collections—those of beauty mogul Sydell Miller (at Sotheby’s) and that of interior designer Mica Ertegun (at Christie’s)—as well as consignments from collectors who apparently decided that the market signals are pointing upwards.
“It is already clear, and will be confirmed, that those who decide to sell this season will be handsomely rewarded,” says Julian Dawes, head of impressionist and modern art in the Americas at Sotheby’s. “Because where there is high-quality material, there will be more people competing than usual.”
Coveted works
In fact, there are a variety of works where the consignees appear to have made this calculation.
Christie’s, which is expected to lead the week in value (with a total estimate of between $583 million and $796 million for around 690 lots), is positioned to lead with high-value items. “We thought, ‘Are we going to do a safe low-value sale or do we focus on the masterpieces?’” says Rotter. “Because I need to show something exciting. I feel like the market is losing interest. So the only thing I have are great works of art.”
On November 19, Christie’s will auction a highly coveted 1964 work by Ed Ruscha, “Standard Station, Ten-Cent Western Being Torn in Half,” with an estimated value “in excess of $50 million” and reportedly being sold for the billionaire Sid Bass. On November 21st, the house will auction a work by Jean-Michel Basquiat on paper from 1982, reported to be part of Peter Brant’s collection, with an estimated value of between US$20 million and US$30 million. (Ertegun’s collection does not reflect a collector’s confidence in the market, given that she passed away last December; it includes a Magritte that Puck says has a third-party guarantee of $95 million.)
Duct tape and banana
Sotheby’s will auction just over 700 lots with a preview sale estimate of approximately $479 million to $659 million. The absence of extremely high-value objects hides the fact that “the average lot value is actually significantly higher this season than any of the last three seasons,” says Dawes. “And I think this reflects the way we characterize sales, with fewer items, but of very high quality.”
Among the highlights is the work “Comedian” by Maurizio Cattelan, composed of tape and a banana, with an estimated value of between US$1 million and US$1.5 million, which will be auctioned on the night of November 20th.
Other works are coming to market for the first time—about 70% of pieces from Sotheby’s evening sales are being auctioned for the first time.
At the Modern Evening Sale on November 18, a bust of Alberto Giacometti, estimated to be worth between $10 million and $15 million, will be auctioned to benefit the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation. There’s also a Picasso painting estimated at $9 million to $12 million, acquired by Chicago commission catalog magnate Morton Neumann. “This work has been on the wall of his house since 1951,” says Dawes. “It hasn’t been shown publicly since the 1980s.”
$13 Million Pollock
Phillips, whose sales are significantly smaller, expects to raise about $86 million to $127 million from about 275 lots, including several new works on the market. “The Koons basketball tank has been in the same collection since the 1990s,” says Jean-Paul Engelen, president of the Americas and global co-head of modern and contemporary art at Phillips, referring to a 1985 Jeff Koons sculpture. , with an estimated value of between US$4 million and US$6 million.
The highest-priced item in Phillips’ Nov. 19 evening sale is a work by Jackson Pollock that was once in the collection of Florence Knoll. With an estimate of “above” US$13 million, the work has also remained in the same collection since 1990. “The first reactions this weekend were very positive, because it is new material”, comments Engelen. “People are always excited by material that is new and fresh.”
